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The fuel price forecasting website says Houston area gas should crest between $3.85 and $4.15 a gallon sometime this spring. Patrick DeHaan is a senior petroleum analyst with Gas Buddy.

“Prices generally will start a bit sluggish this year, prices moving up in January and February just slightly, and then the accelerator gets hit in March, and that lasts for about a month or so.”

DeHaan says the wild card will be refinery performance.

“In the past year, a major refinery in Houston, the Motiva refinery, opened a 300,000 barrel a day expansion. That expansion had to be closed down again, and that certainly resulted in some upward pressure at the pump.”

The Motiva refinery — located 90 miles east of Houston in Port Arthur — was forced to shut down in June due to severe chemical corrosion, just weeks after the completion of a five year expansion project.