Research Duo Gives Gulf Hurricane Prediction
by: Bill Stamps, April 4, 2012 9:04:00 pm
Phil Klotzbach and William Gray have been a team for 29 years. Although most people in Colorado are more concerned about snow storms, these two Colorado State professors have made their living studying hurricanes.
This is Klotzbach talking about the accuracy of their predictions:
"Obviously our forecasts aren’t perfect every year, but in general, we’re able to predict above or below average hurricane seasons as early as March."
Klotzbach says they go back and look at years that had high numbers of hurricanes. They study what the weather patterns and conditions were leading up to that storm season.
"Basically what we find is that certain sets of conditions tend to reoccur. One set before active seasons and pretty much the opposite set before inactive hurricane season. So what we do is we these types of historical relationships to make our forecasts."
So after studying the conditions leading up to this storm season, the dynamic storm predictors have come up with this forecast:
"At this point we’re predicting an average season has 12 named storms, this year we’re predicting 10. An average season has about 6 hurricanes and this year we’re predicting 4."
Four hurricanes is what they’re expecting, how many of those will make landfall is another story.