What It Means For Texas Not To Be A Part Of Super Tuesday

Texas should have been one of the states holding primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday. But the protracted battle over congressional redistricting maps pushed our primary to late may. David Pitman takes a look at what sort of impact Texas would have had, if it had been able to stick to the original schedule.

Playing coulda, shoulda, woulda over politics is about as tricky as doing it with anything else.  But we found UH associate professor of political science Brandon Rottinghaus up to the task.  He says had Texas been a part of Super Tuesday, voters here would have likely slowed Mitt Romney's momentum. 

"Because, you would have, I think, a conservative bent in terms of the voting, which would benefit Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich.  If that's the case, then you would definitely find a new kind of race."

Texas has 155 GOP delegates, second only to California.  It's not enough for any of the four candidates to come close to locking up the nomination.  Still, Rottinghaus says the absence of Texas in today's voting could make the primary contest even longer.

"It depends, in part, on how split the vote is across the country.  So, you've got some states today that may be in play that otherwise might not be in play.  You might see a less-than-decisive victory for Mitt Romney today that would kind of extend the nomination fight."

Rottinghaus believes by the time Texas holds its primary on May 29th, enough other states will have voted, and enough delegates awarded, that the primary here simply won't matter much in choosing a nominee.

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David Pitman

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